The numbers are in!

Have you ever wondered how your Division performed in Philadelphia’s 2nd Ward when compared to other Divisions?  (What’s my Division?)  Well, the official voter file is in and we’ve crunched the numbers.  (Don’t forget to check out how the Ward performed City-wide if you haven’t already.)

Important notes:

• All statistics have been rounded up or down.  So, some numbers may appear to be a statistical dead heat.
• All charts reflect registered Democrats.

So, let’s dive in…

% Turnout

EVERY Division beat the City average!

% Turnout Leaderboard

A little competition is a good thing!

% and Raw Turnout compared to average of PR17 through PR21

The City stayed consistent in percent voter turnout compared to the average of Primaries 2017-2021.  The 2nd Ward showed a 3.5% increase.

In terms of raw voter turnout, the City showed a 6% increase compared to a 19% increase by the 2nd Ward over this period.  (Both the City and 2nd Ward increased raw turnout over the 2018 Primary by 48% and 60% respectively.)

One thing to keep in mind about the average Primary turnout of 2017-2021 is that 2020 was a year of historically high voter turnout.  That tended to skew the statistics on the high side.  But, even with 2020, the City is meeting, and the 2nd Ward is exceeding, those averages.

Turnout Voting Method

This shows the raw number of votes cast per Division broken into Mail, At Polls, Absentee, and Provisional.

Turnout Voting Method comparison PR21 to PR22

It looks like voting method is starting to stabilize as pandemic restrictions, and fears, ease.  These may be very close to how voters will continue to choose to vote going forward.

Anecdotally, when some of us talked with voters door to door, many people equated mail in voting with a bad thing they had to do because of the pandemic. Many wanted to vote in person as a marker of life getting back to normal. There is clearly some human behavior at work here.

% voted early

• Mail-in voting, Civilian overseas, Absentee
• Any voting method other than At Polls (AP)

% Mail-in Ballots spoiled

Spoiling a mail-in ballot means bringing it to the polls and voting in person, possibly even provisionally.  But, despite the name, spoiled ballots are not a bad thing, per se.  It may mean that the voter forgot to mail their ballot on time, and since drop boxes have decreased in number, that person decided to bring their ballot to the polls.  (We’d much rather a spoiled ballot than not voting!)  Overall, the number of spoiled ballots appears to have stabilized both in the City and 2nd Ward, overall.

% Mail-in Ballots Unreturned

% Change in Turnout between PR21 and PR22

In general, the 2nd Ward matched the City in terms of change in turnout.

% Turnout of Inaccessible Doors (and VBM) mailing

For the third cycle, the 2nd Ward mailed endorsements to our inaccessible doors.  These are homes or apartments our Committeepeople have flagged that they cannot canvass in person.  However, this time we also mailed anyone who voted by mail in GN21 – early enough to receive our endorsements before their ballot arrived.  We saw a staggering 75% average turnout in this population, which is a sign that our mailing dollar was well spent.

% Change in turnout of Inaccessible Doors (and VBM) mailing from PR18 to PR22

Our inaccessible doors (and mail-in voter) mailing resulted in an 83% increase in voting within this population over PR18!

(Don’t forget to check out how the Ward performed City-wide, if you haven’t already.)